Bye elections, hello load shedding  

Staff reporter

Johannesburg- Eskom’s CEO, Dan Marokane, stated that despite the utility’s improved performance, it has not increased its electricity supply enough to “confidently” prevent load-shedding in winter.

He mentioned that Eskom’s performance has significantly improved, with breakdowns decreasing by nearly 10% compared to last year and unit trips decreasing by 19%.

However, Marokane expressed concern that the current unplanned losses of 14,200 MW were still unsustainable and likely to lead to load shedding in winter, with the utility aiming to contain this to stage 2.

Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also cautioned South Africans that load-shedding is likely to return as Eskom may face future setbacks.

In late April, he mentioned that Eskom is expected to encounter significant challenges due to the large-scale nature of its operations.

He stated, “We are still working on the reliability of these machines, and that’s why you can’t speak with great confidence that load shedding is behind us. That would be a false claim that can’t be substantiated.”

Furthermore, Professor Sampson Mamphweli, the head of energy at the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), has warned that load shedding could escalate to stage 5 during winter.

South Africa has experienced a warmer-than-anticipated winter and increased generation from rooftop solar, which has helped prevent load-shedding.

Mamphweli pointed out that the rise in solar power generation during the day allows Eskom to build up its reserves for the evening peak. 

However, this may not be sufficient to prevent load-shedding throughout winter. 

There may be days without load shedding, but there could also be days with stage 5 load shedding if breakdowns at Eskom’s power stations increase, leading to a rapid decline in electricity supply.

Mamphweli’s analysis resonates with University of Johannesburg professor Hartmut Winkler, who mentioned that load shedding is expected to recur despite lower demand due to the increase in rooftop solar.

Winkler added that Eskom has provided an optimistic view to the public regarding its winter situation, and he anticipates South Africa to fluctuate between stages 1 and 3.

This is a developing story. 

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